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Investor's Cheat Sheet

One printable page: the signal block decoded, the metrics that matter with good/bad ranges, the pre-trade checklist, which skill to use, and the red flags

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One page to print and keep beside the screen: how to read a signal block and its Data & Sources header, the metrics that matter with their rough good/bad ranges, the pre-trade checklist, which skill answers which question, and the red flags. Every range is a rule of thumb, not a law; industry and growth stage always matter. Full definitions are in the Glossary, and the reasoning behind each item is in the Learning lessons.


1 · The signal block, decoded

Every analysis ends in the same box. Each line is a separate axis (Concepts → Anatomy of the signal block).

Field Answers Is not
Signal — BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH Which direction the evidence points A price target
Confidence — HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW How complete and clean the data is How bullish it is; a bearish call can be high-confidence
Horizon — SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM Over what timeframe the thesis plays out How long to hold no matter what
Score — 0–10 One blended read of the above A probability
Action — BUY / HOLD / SELL The decision the signal implies Advice; it is a default to pressure-test
Conviction — STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK How firmly the analysis commits to the action Confidence: clean data with a thin margin of safety still means weak conviction
Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)

Consistency checks:

  • The score and the signal must agree: score ≥ 6.0 means BULLISH, 4.0–5.9 means NEUTRAL, below 4.0 means BEARISH. fact-check is the exception, because its score is a Verification Score.
  • Read the box as one sentence: “Over a [Horizon], the evidence is [Signal] with [Confidence] confidence ([Score]), implying [Action] at [Conviction] conviction.” If the sentence contradicts itself, the analysis does too.
  • A high score with LOW confidence means the case looks good but the evidence is thin, so dig deeper before you act.

2 · The Data & Sources header

The header at the top of every output says where the numbers came from (Data & Accuracy).

Data & Sources
  As of:      2026-07-02
  Source:     SEC EDGAR 10-K (FY2025) · company IR · FRED
  Retrieval:  pasted by user   (or: web/tool retrieval · model memory)
  Confidence: HIGH — primary-source, current
Field What to check
As of The date the figures represent. Stale data should be flagged
Source The primary documents: filing, company IR, FRED, exchange data
Retrieval pasted by user (most reliable) → web/tool retrieval (verify) → model memory (least reliable, a placeholder)
Confidence HIGH (primary-source, current) · MEDIUM (mixed or secondary) · LOW (memory or missing data)

Rules: if Retrieval is model memory, Confidence must be LOW. If sources disagree, prefer the primary source and then the most recent one, show both values, and never average them.


3 · The metrics that matter

Profitability and quality

Metric Formula Good Bad / watch
Gross margin (Revenue − COGS) ÷ Revenue High and stable or rising (pricing power) Steadily falling (competition)
Operating margin EBIT ÷ Revenue Stable or rising over several years Eroding; a wide gap to gross margin means heavy overhead
FCF Operating cash flow − Capex Consistently positive and growing, ≈ or > net income Negative with no growth story, or diverging from profit
ROIC NOPAT ÷ Invested capital > 15% excellent · 10–15% good Below WACC destroys value
ROE Net income ÷ Equity > 15% strong · 10–15% decent < 10% weak; high ROE with low ROA means debt is doing the work
Piotroski F-Score 9 pass/fail checks 7–9 strong 4–6 middling · 0–3 weak

Balance sheet

Metric Formula Good Bad / watch
Debt-to-equity Total debt ÷ Equity < 1.0 conservative 1.0–2.0 moderate · > 2.0 leveraged (banks and utilities run high)
Net debt / EBITDA (Debt − Cash) ÷ EBITDA Below ~2× comfortable Above ~4× stretched
Interest coverage EBIT ÷ Interest expense > 5× safe 2–5× adequate · < 1.5× danger
Current ratio Current assets ÷ Current liabilities > 1.5 comfortable 1.0–1.5 adequate · < 1.0 strain
Altman Z-Score Five weighted ratios > 3.0 safe 1.8–3.0 grey zone · < 1.8 distress

Valuation and income

Metric Formula Good Bad / watch
P/E Price ÷ EPS No universal level; compare with history and peers Useless for loss-makers; distorted by one-offs
PEG P/E ÷ EPS growth (%) < 1.0 potentially cheap · ~1.0 fair > 2.0 expensive; growth estimates are fragile
EV/EBITDA (Market cap + Debt − Cash) ÷ EBITDA < 10× often cheap · 10–15× fair > 15× rich (sector-dependent); ignores capex
P/S Market cap ÷ Revenue For early, unprofitable firms, against peers Sales without profit can be worthless
FCF yield FCF ÷ Market cap > 5% attractive · 3–5% fair < 3% expensive; lumpy capex distorts one year
Dividend payout Dividends ÷ Net income < 60% sustainable 60–80% watch · > 100% paying out more than it earns
Dividend yield Annual dividend ÷ Price Covered by FCF > ~7% often prices in a cut (yield trap)
Margin of safety (Value − Price) ÷ Value ~20% stable · ~30% medium · 40%+ hard to forecast Zero or negative means wait, don’t buy

Market, portfolio and funds

Metric Formula Good Bad / watch
Beta Move vs. the market 1 = moves with the market; it sizes risk, it isn’t a grade High beta amplifies gains and losses
Sharpe ratio (Return − Risk-free) ÷ Volatility > 1 good · > 2 very good < 1 weak
Max drawdown Worst peak-to-trough fall Know it before you own it A 50% drawdown needs +100% to recover
Correlation −1 to +1 < 0.5 between core holdings > 0.8 is the same bet twice; correlations rise toward 1 in a crash
RSI 0–100 momentum 30–70 normal > 70 overbought · < 30 oversold (a caution flag, not a trade)
Days-to-cover / short float Shares short ÷ Avg daily volume / ÷ Float — > 5 days notable, > 10 high · float > 10% elevated, > 20% crowded
Expense ratio Annual fund costs ÷ Avg assets ≤ 0.10% broad index 0.20–0.50% specialty · > 0.75% needs a reason

4 · Pre-trade checklist

Taken from Lesson 6, Lesson 7 and Lesson 13. Don’t place the order until every box is ticked.

  • [ ] Thesis written in one paragraph: what has to happen, why the market is wrong, why now
  • [ ] Quality: ROIC above WACC, margins stable, balance sheet sound
  • [ ] Statements: FCF backs the profit; none of the red flags below is unexplained
  • [ ] Valuation: a bear / base / bull fair-value range, with a margin of safety sized to your uncertainty
  • [ ] Market: trend, positioning and the next catalyst or earnings date are known
  • [ ] 3–5 KPIs with thresholds, and the invalidation triggers that make you exit
  • [ ] Bear case read; you can say which argument worries you most
  • [ ] Pre-mortem written: “It is 12 months later and this lost 40% because…”
  • [ ] Size is within your cap (often 5–10% per name, less for speculative names), and you know the dollar loss at −30% and −50%
  • [ ] Trading plan written: starter, add rungs, trim level, horizon; you sell on the thesis, not the quote
  • [ ] Data & Sources checked: current as-of date, primary source, and no model memory numbers left unverified
  • [ ] A limit order, at a price you would still pay tomorrow
  • [ ] Journal entry drafted before the order

Emotional-trade check. Stop if any of these is true: the stock moved more than 10% today and that is why you’re here · you’ve checked the price more than three times · you’re acting on a headline from the last hour · you want to “get back to even” or “not miss it” · you can’t name the trigger that fired · you’re adding to a WEAKENED or BROKEN thesis. If two or more are true, wait 24 hours and run the checklist again.

Sell rules Not rules (just feelings)
The thesis broke: a KPI crossed its threshold or a trigger fired “It’s down 20%” · “It’s up 40%”
Far past even the bull-case value, fundamentals unchanged “I’m bored with it”
A clearly better use of the capital “There was a scary headline”
The position grew past its cap “Everyone is selling”
You need the money for the goal it was for

5 · Which skill for which question

Question Skill Then
Is this worth a look? stock-eval result-validator
What is it worth? stock-valuation bear-case
Are the filings hiding anything? financial-report-analyst forensic-accounting
Can it pay its debts? credit-check —
Is the moat real? competitor-analysis industry-map
Is the dividend safe? dividend-analysis portfolio-review
What’s the strongest case against it? bear-case stock-eval
Which of these two or three stocks? compare —
When should I enter or exit? technical-analysis chart-master
What’s priced in before earnings? earnings-preview earnings-call-analysis
Where is smart money moving? institutional-ownership insider-trading
Is this ETF any good? etf-analysis portfolio-review
How do I build the position? position-ladder thesis-tracker
Is my thesis still intact? thesis-tracker --update bear-case
How much could my portfolio lose? risk-stress-test portfolio-review
What’s the tax on this trade? tax-lens —
Are the report’s numbers true? fact-check result-validator
What does this output mean? learning-coach —

The full map is on Choose a Skill.


6 · Red flags

Red flag What it may mean Lesson
Revenue rising, FCF shrinking Growth isn’t turning into cash 2
Receivables growing faster than sales Sales booked before cash arrives, or customers who can’t pay 2
Inventory piling up against sales Product not selling; write-downs ahead 2
Profit propped up by one-off items The earnings won’t repeat 2
Debt ballooning while earnings stay flat; coverage < 2× Fragility, with interest eating future profit 3
ROIC sliding toward WACC, margins eroding The moat is narrowing, whatever management says 3
Buybacks above intrinsic value; serial acquisitions Capital allocation is destroying value 3
Payout > 100% or yield > ~7% A dividend cut may already be priced in Glossary
DCF verdict flips on a small WACC change; terminal value is most of the answer A fragile estimate, so treat it as a range 4
Leveraged, inverse or ETN structure; AUM < $100M; tracking gap beyond the fee Not a long-term holding 10
model memory paired with HIGH confidence; no as-of date; score and signal disagree Don’t trust the output until it’s verified Data
Adding to a WEAKENED or BROKEN thesis; can’t name the trigger An emotional trade 13

Next / Related: the Learning hub for the lessons behind each line · the Glossary for every metric · Concepts for the mental models · Choose a Skill to run an analysis.

Educational content only. Not financial advice. Ranges are rules of thumb.