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Investor's Cheat Sheet
One printable page: the signal block decoded, the metrics that matter with good/bad ranges, the pre-trade checklist, which skill to use, and the red flags
One page to print and keep beside the screen: how to read a signal block and its Data & Sources header, the metrics that matter with their rough good/bad ranges, the pre-trade checklist, which skill answers which question, and the red flags. Every range is a rule of thumb, not a law; industry and growth stage always matter. Full definitions are in the Glossary, and the reasoning behind each item is in the Learning lessons.
1 · The signal block, decoded
Every analysis ends in the same box. Each line is a separate axis (Concepts → Anatomy of the signal block).
| Field | Answers | Is not |
|---|---|---|
| Signal — BULLISH / NEUTRAL / BEARISH | Which direction the evidence points | A price target |
| Confidence — HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW | How complete and clean the data is | How bullish it is; a bearish call can be high-confidence |
| Horizon — SHORT / MEDIUM / LONG-TERM | Over what timeframe the thesis plays out | How long to hold no matter what |
| Score — 0–10 | One blended read of the above | A probability |
| Action — BUY / HOLD / SELL | The decision the signal implies | Advice; it is a default to pressure-test |
| Conviction — STRONG / MODERATE / WEAK | How firmly the analysis commits to the action | Confidence: clean data with a thin margin of safety still means weak conviction |
Score Guide: 8.0–10.0 Strongly Bullish | 6.0–7.9 Moderately Bullish | 4.0–5.9 Neutral | 2.0–3.9 Moderately Bearish | 0.0–1.9 Strongly Bearish
Confidence: HIGH (strong data, clear signals) | MEDIUM (mixed signals) | LOW (limited data, conflicting signals)
Horizon: SHORT-TERM (1 week–3 months) | MEDIUM-TERM (3 months–1 year) | LONG-TERM (1+ years)
Consistency checks:
- The score and the signal must agree: score ≥ 6.0 means BULLISH, 4.0–5.9 means NEUTRAL, below 4.0 means BEARISH.
fact-checkis the exception, because its score is a Verification Score. - Read the box as one sentence: “Over a [Horizon], the evidence is [Signal] with [Confidence] confidence ([Score]), implying [Action] at [Conviction] conviction.” If the sentence contradicts itself, the analysis does too.
- A high score with LOW confidence means the case looks good but the evidence is thin, so dig deeper before you act.
2 · The Data & Sources header
The header at the top of every output says where the numbers came from (Data & Accuracy).
Data & Sources
As of: 2026-07-02
Source: SEC EDGAR 10-K (FY2025) · company IR · FRED
Retrieval: pasted by user (or: web/tool retrieval · model memory)
Confidence: HIGH — primary-source, current
| Field | What to check |
|---|---|
| As of | The date the figures represent. Stale data should be flagged |
| Source | The primary documents: filing, company IR, FRED, exchange data |
| Retrieval | pasted by user (most reliable) → web/tool retrieval (verify) → model memory (least reliable, a placeholder) |
| Confidence | HIGH (primary-source, current) · MEDIUM (mixed or secondary) · LOW (memory or missing data) |
Rules: if Retrieval is model memory, Confidence must be LOW. If sources disagree, prefer the primary source and then the most recent one, show both values, and never average them.
3 · The metrics that matter
Profitability and quality
| Metric | Formula | Good | Bad / watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin | (Revenue − COGS) ÷ Revenue |
High and stable or rising (pricing power) | Steadily falling (competition) |
| Operating margin | EBIT ÷ Revenue |
Stable or rising over several years | Eroding; a wide gap to gross margin means heavy overhead |
| FCF | Operating cash flow − Capex |
Consistently positive and growing, ≈ or > net income | Negative with no growth story, or diverging from profit |
| ROIC | NOPAT ÷ Invested capital |
> 15% excellent · 10–15% good | Below WACC destroys value |
| ROE | Net income ÷ Equity |
> 15% strong · 10–15% decent | < 10% weak; high ROE with low ROA means debt is doing the work |
| Piotroski F-Score | 9 pass/fail checks | 7–9 strong | 4–6 middling · 0–3 weak |
Balance sheet
| Metric | Formula | Good | Bad / watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-equity | Total debt ÷ Equity |
< 1.0 conservative | 1.0–2.0 moderate · > 2.0 leveraged (banks and utilities run high) |
| Net debt / EBITDA | (Debt − Cash) ÷ EBITDA |
Below ~2× comfortable | Above ~4× stretched |
| Interest coverage | EBIT ÷ Interest expense |
> 5× safe | 2–5× adequate · < 1.5× danger |
| Current ratio | Current assets ÷ Current liabilities |
> 1.5 comfortable | 1.0–1.5 adequate · < 1.0 strain |
| Altman Z-Score | Five weighted ratios | > 3.0 safe | 1.8–3.0 grey zone · < 1.8 distress |
Valuation and income
| Metric | Formula | Good | Bad / watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | Price ÷ EPS |
No universal level; compare with history and peers | Useless for loss-makers; distorted by one-offs |
| PEG | P/E ÷ EPS growth (%) |
< 1.0 potentially cheap · ~1.0 fair | > 2.0 expensive; growth estimates are fragile |
| EV/EBITDA | (Market cap + Debt − Cash) ÷ EBITDA |
< 10× often cheap · 10–15× fair | > 15× rich (sector-dependent); ignores capex |
| P/S | Market cap ÷ Revenue |
For early, unprofitable firms, against peers | Sales without profit can be worthless |
| FCF yield | FCF ÷ Market cap |
> 5% attractive · 3–5% fair | < 3% expensive; lumpy capex distorts one year |
| Dividend payout | Dividends ÷ Net income |
< 60% sustainable | 60–80% watch · > 100% paying out more than it earns |
| Dividend yield | Annual dividend ÷ Price |
Covered by FCF | > ~7% often prices in a cut (yield trap) |
| Margin of safety | (Value − Price) ÷ Value |
~20% stable · ~30% medium · 40%+ hard to forecast | Zero or negative means wait, don’t buy |
Market, portfolio and funds
| Metric | Formula | Good | Bad / watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | Move vs. the market | 1 = moves with the market; it sizes risk, it isn’t a grade | High beta amplifies gains and losses |
| Sharpe ratio | (Return − Risk-free) ÷ Volatility |
> 1 good · > 2 very good | < 1 weak |
| Max drawdown | Worst peak-to-trough fall | Know it before you own it | A 50% drawdown needs +100% to recover |
| Correlation | −1 to +1 | < 0.5 between core holdings | > 0.8 is the same bet twice; correlations rise toward 1 in a crash |
| RSI | 0–100 momentum | 30–70 normal | > 70 overbought · < 30 oversold (a caution flag, not a trade) |
| Days-to-cover / short float | Shares short ÷ Avg daily volume / ÷ Float |
— | > 5 days notable, > 10 high · float > 10% elevated, > 20% crowded |
| Expense ratio | Annual fund costs ÷ Avg assets |
≤ 0.10% broad index | 0.20–0.50% specialty · > 0.75% needs a reason |
4 · Pre-trade checklist
Taken from Lesson 6, Lesson 7 and Lesson 13. Don’t place the order until every box is ticked.
- [ ] Thesis written in one paragraph: what has to happen, why the market is wrong, why now
- [ ] Quality: ROIC above WACC, margins stable, balance sheet sound
- [ ] Statements: FCF backs the profit; none of the red flags below is unexplained
- [ ] Valuation: a bear / base / bull fair-value range, with a margin of safety sized to your uncertainty
- [ ] Market: trend, positioning and the next catalyst or earnings date are known
- [ ] 3–5 KPIs with thresholds, and the invalidation triggers that make you exit
- [ ] Bear case read; you can say which argument worries you most
- [ ] Pre-mortem written: “It is 12 months later and this lost 40% because…”
- [ ] Size is within your cap (often 5–10% per name, less for speculative names), and you know the dollar loss at −30% and −50%
- [ ] Trading plan written: starter, add rungs, trim level, horizon; you sell on the thesis, not the quote
- [ ] Data & Sources checked: current as-of date, primary source, and no
model memorynumbers left unverified - [ ] A limit order, at a price you would still pay tomorrow
- [ ] Journal entry drafted before the order
Emotional-trade check. Stop if any of these is true: the stock moved more than 10% today and that is why you’re here · you’ve checked the price more than three times · you’re acting on a headline from the last hour · you want to “get back to even” or “not miss it” · you can’t name the trigger that fired · you’re adding to a WEAKENED or BROKEN thesis. If two or more are true, wait 24 hours and run the checklist again.
| Sell rules | Not rules (just feelings) |
|---|---|
| The thesis broke: a KPI crossed its threshold or a trigger fired | “It’s down 20%” · “It’s up 40%” |
| Far past even the bull-case value, fundamentals unchanged | “I’m bored with it” |
| A clearly better use of the capital | “There was a scary headline” |
| The position grew past its cap | “Everyone is selling” |
| You need the money for the goal it was for |
5 · Which skill for which question
| Question | Skill | Then |
|---|---|---|
| Is this worth a look? | stock-eval |
result-validator |
| What is it worth? | stock-valuation |
bear-case |
| Are the filings hiding anything? | financial-report-analyst |
forensic-accounting |
| Can it pay its debts? | credit-check |
— |
| Is the moat real? | competitor-analysis |
industry-map |
| Is the dividend safe? | dividend-analysis |
portfolio-review |
| What’s the strongest case against it? | bear-case |
stock-eval |
| Which of these two or three stocks? | compare |
— |
| When should I enter or exit? | technical-analysis |
chart-master |
| What’s priced in before earnings? | earnings-preview |
earnings-call-analysis |
| Where is smart money moving? | institutional-ownership |
insider-trading |
| Is this ETF any good? | etf-analysis |
portfolio-review |
| How do I build the position? | position-ladder |
thesis-tracker |
| Is my thesis still intact? | thesis-tracker --update |
bear-case |
| How much could my portfolio lose? | risk-stress-test |
portfolio-review |
| What’s the tax on this trade? | tax-lens |
— |
| Are the report’s numbers true? | fact-check |
result-validator |
| What does this output mean? | learning-coach |
— |
The full map is on Choose a Skill.
6 · Red flags
| Red flag | What it may mean | Lesson |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue rising, FCF shrinking | Growth isn’t turning into cash | 2 |
| Receivables growing faster than sales | Sales booked before cash arrives, or customers who can’t pay | 2 |
| Inventory piling up against sales | Product not selling; write-downs ahead | 2 |
| Profit propped up by one-off items | The earnings won’t repeat | 2 |
| Debt ballooning while earnings stay flat; coverage < 2× | Fragility, with interest eating future profit | 3 |
| ROIC sliding toward WACC, margins eroding | The moat is narrowing, whatever management says | 3 |
| Buybacks above intrinsic value; serial acquisitions | Capital allocation is destroying value | 3 |
| Payout > 100% or yield > ~7% | A dividend cut may already be priced in | Glossary |
| DCF verdict flips on a small WACC change; terminal value is most of the answer | A fragile estimate, so treat it as a range | 4 |
| Leveraged, inverse or ETN structure; AUM < $100M; tracking gap beyond the fee | Not a long-term holding | 10 |
model memory paired with HIGH confidence; no as-of date; score and signal disagree |
Don’t trust the output until it’s verified | Data |
| Adding to a WEAKENED or BROKEN thesis; can’t name the trigger | An emotional trade | 13 |
Next / Related: the Learning hub for the lessons behind each line · the Glossary for every metric · Concepts for the mental models · Choose a Skill to run an analysis.
Educational content only. Not financial advice. Ranges are rules of thumb.