Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是人工智慧與資料分析領域的全球領導者，其 Gotham（政府） 與 Foundry/AIP（商業） 平台在國防、情報及大型企業數位轉型中佔據核心地位。 2025全年營收達 $4.48B（YoY +56%），淨利潤 $1.63B（YoY +253%），展示強勁盈利加速趨勢。 技術面短期壓力明顯，RSI(14) 僅 29.04（超賣），股價位於所有主要均線（MA20/50/200）下方，ADX 30.99顯示強勢空頭趨勢。 然而，MACD 柱線轉正（+0.386）及底背離信號提示潛在反彈機會。 估值方面，P/E 205x、P/S 69x 仍屬極高水位，需以成長速度衡量其合理性。 綜合基本面強勢、技術超賣反彈潛力及高估值風險，評級為 「審慎買入」，適合長線且具高風險承受能力之投資者於此水位分批佈局。
| 財務指標 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | YoY 成長 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 總營收 | $1.91B | $2.23B | $2.87B | $4.48B | +56.1% ↑ |
| 毛利 | $1.50B | $1.79B | $2.30B | $3.69B | +60.4% ↑ |
| 毛利率 | 78.5% | 80.3% | 80.1% | 82.4% | +2.3pp ↑ |
| 營業利益 | -$161.2M | $120.0M | $310.4M | $1.41B | +354.5% ↑ |
| 淨利潤 | -$373.7M | $209.8M | $462.2M | $1.63B | +252.7% ↑ |
| 淨利率 | -19.6% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 36.3% | +20.2pp ↑ |
| EBITDA | -$138.7M | $153.3M | $342.0M | $1.44B | +321.1% ↑ |
| 自由現金流 | $183.7M | $697.1M | $1.14B | $2.10B | +84.2% ↑ |
| 研發支出 | $359.7M | $404.6M | $507.9M | $557.7M | +9.8% ↑ |
PLTR 所有估值倍數均大幅高於行業均值，反映市場對其 AI 平台未來成長的極高期望。 以 70.98x 遠期 P/E 計算，市場隱含 2026-2028 年 EPS 年均成長率需維持 40%+ 才能支撐現有估值。 高估值使股價對任何業績不如預期的情況非常脆弱。
| 日期 | 週收盤價 | RSI(14) | MACD柱 | 週成交量 | 市場狀態 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | $178.15 | 49.3 | -1.004 | 214,258,300 | 中性 |
| 2025-10-26 | $184.63 | 56.3 | -0.374 | 188,392,800 | 中性偏多 |
| 2025-11-02 | $200.47 | 74.6 | +1.674 | 247,130,700 | 超買警示 |
| 2025-11-09 | $177.93 | 47.7 | -1.627 | 430,977,000 | 急跌回調 |
| 2025-11-16 | $174.01 | 42.5 | -2.349 | 318,716,600 | 空頭 |
| 2025-11-23 | $154.85 | 21.9 | -3.917 | 299,947,600 | 超賣 |
| 2025-11-30 | $168.45 | 43.4 | -1.239 | 146,211,300 | 技術反彈 |
| 2025-12-07 | $181.76 | 58.1 | +1.856 | 154,986,300 | 看多 |
| 2025-12-14 | $183.57 | 86.0 | +2.377 | 188,062,900 | 嚴重超買 |
| 2025-12-21 | $193.38 | 72.8 | +1.548 | 242,442,000 | 超買 |
| 2026-01-04 | $167.86 | 34.2 | -1.946 | 135,209,800 | 回調 |
| 2026-01-25 | $169.60 | 52.2 | -1.390 | 143,344,900 | 中性 |
| 2026-02-01 | $146.59 | 14.3 | -2.597 | 201,260,100 | 極度超賣 |
| 2026-02-08 | $135.90 | 27.5 | -3.041 | 455,532,000 | 超賣放量 |
| 2026-02-15 | $131.41 | 29.7 | -1.499 | 290,428,600 | 超賣收斂 |
| 2026-02-22 | $135.24 | 42.2 | +0.327 | 204,008,200 | MACD轉正 |
| 2026-03-01 | $129.73 | 29.0 | +0.386 | 69,142,881 | 低量整理 |
| 資產負債表 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 總資產 | $3.46B | $4.52B | $6.34B | $8.90B |
| 總負債 | $818.8M | $961.5M | $1.25B | $1.41B |
| 股東權益 | $2.57B | $3.48B | $5.00B | $7.39B |
| 現金及等值物 | $2.60B | $831.1M | $2.10B | $1.42B |
| 總債務 | $249.4M | $229.4M | $239.2M | $229.3M |
| 流動資產 | $3.04B | $4.14B | $5.93B | $8.36B |
| 流動負債 | $587.9M | $746.0M | $996.0M | $1.18B |
| 流動比率 | 5.17x | 5.55x | 5.95x | 7.11x |
| 關鍵指標 | 數值 | 評估 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 毛利率 | 82.4% | ★★★★★ 極優 | ||
| 營業利益率 | 40.9% | ★★★★☆ 優異 | ||
| EBITDA 利潤率 | 32.2% | ★★★★☆ 優異 | ||
| 淨利率 | 36.3% | ★★★★★ 極優 | ||
| ROE | 26.0% | ★★★★☆ 優異 | ||
| ROA | 11.6% | ★★★☆☆ 良好 | ||
| 淨現金 | $6.95B | ★★★★★ 極強 | ||
| Debt/Equity | 3.06% | ★★★★★ 低槓桿 | ||
| Beta | 1.687 | ★★★☆☆ 高波動 | ||
| 短期利率 | 2.0% | ★★★★☆ 低賣壓 | ||
| 持股機構 | 持股數 | 持股市值 |
|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Vanguard Group Inc | 215,444,098 | $27.95B |
| 🥈 BlackRock Inc. | 193,327,487 | $25.08B |
| 🥉 State Street Corp. | 102,385,317 | $13.28B |
| Geode Capital Mgmt. | 54,200,265 | $7.03B |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 35,575,332 | $4.62B |
| Morgan Stanley | 29,206,906 | $3.79B |
| Norges Bank | 28,971,257 | $3.76B |
| Invesco Ltd. | 22,415,082 | $2.91B |
| Northern Trust Corp. | 20,762,600 | $2.69B |
| FMR LLC (Fidelity) | 18,984,930 | $2.46B |